500+ Bets Later: What We Got Wrong About Edges, EV, and ROI with Elihu D. Fuestel

Elihu D. Feustel returns to Gambling With Good JuJu as a 3-time guest, and this one gets deep.

After wrapping our first full College Football season using Elihu’s Beyond The Odds framework, we sit down with the source of truth to break down what actually happened vs. what the model said should happen. Over 500+ wagers, we landed at a 2.35% ROI — solid, profitable, but well below the 7–8% edge the data projected. So… where’s the disconnect?

We dive into ROI vs. model EV, sample size requirements, parent line movement, and whether large discrepancies should trigger model skepticism or process refinement. We also break down the market that surprised us most — 1Q Team Totals — where double-digit model EV translated into sub-4% real-world returns (and a DraftKings account casualty).

Elihu walks us through:

• Why results will never fully match a model
• How to think about variance and sample sizes when evaluating performance
• Whether every “edge” should be bet automatically
• How he handles line movement and validation beyond raw outputs
• What to expect when transitioning from College Football to College Basketball

We also recap sportsbook-by-sportsbook results, kiosk betting experiments, account longevity realities, and the mindset shift from “juicing the model” to simply executing better.

This episode is a reality check, a confidence boost, and a roadmap forward for anyone trying to turn theory into execution.

📘 Beyond The Odds & Conquering Risk by Elihu D. Feustel — available on Amazon
🐦 Follow Elihu on X: @d_feustel